Global stock markets finished the month mixed. Differences in returns were quite large – EU stocks gained more than 5%, US and Asian stocks lost a bit more than a half percent. Without EU stock globaly closed the month in negative teritorry (-0,66%) as measured by MSCI World Ex. EU.
Leading macro indicators of developed world are showing first signs of slowing down while emerging markets continue with faster economic growth. Valuations of developed markets are quite high especially US market is grossly overvalued. No matter which method of valuation we use, the conclusion is simmilar – stocks on the US exchanges are overvalued. This does not necessarily mean that returns will be negative in the next few weeks or months but it does mean that in the next few years we can expect quite lower returns when compared to previous years.
The Fund lost 0,1% in March. Becouse of the first signs of a possible slowdown in global macro data the Fund’s exposure to stocks is about 70%, about 10% lower than in the previous months. In the coming months we will continue to look closely at leading macro indicators and adjust the portfolio’s exposure to stocks and bonds accordingly.